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Ballesteros-Pérez, P, Skitmore, M, Pellicer, E and Zhang, X (2016) Scoring Rules and Competitive Behavior in Best-Value Construction Auctions. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(09).
Chan, A P C, Javed, A A, Lyu, S, Hon, C K H and Wong, F K W (2016) Strategies for Improving Safety and Health of Ethnic Minority Construction Workers. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(09).
Chen, Y, Dib, H, Cox, R F, Shaurette, M and Vorvoreanu, M (2016) Structural Equation Model of Building Information Modeling Maturity. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(09).
De Jorge Moreno, J, De Jorge Huertas, V and Rojas Carrasco, O (2016) Assessment of the Efficiency of the Spanish Construction Industry Using Parametric Methods: Case Study. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(09).
Dursun, O and Stoy, C (2016) Conceptual Estimation of Construction Costs Using the Multistep Ahead Approach. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(09).
- Type: Journal Article
- Keywords: Preplanning; Cost estimation; Multistep ahead approach; Regression; Neural networks; Cost and schedule;
- ISBN/ISSN: 0733-9364
- URL: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001150
- Abstract:
Providing accurate forecasts of construction costs at the conceptual phases of building projects is vital since they form an objective benchmark for the subsequent evaluation of project performance. Previous works adopted a conventional approach in which a restricted set of macro project determinants, which are available in the preplanning phase, was employed towards direct estimation of construction costs. Aiming to reduce the prediction error in conceptual estimates, the current study adopts a novel approach from the domain of forecasting. This multistep ahead (MSA) approach relies on the idea of using several cascaded estimations to predict future values. Accordingly, building element quantities were estimated as the first step. In the second step, estimated quantities were combined with the existing set of inputs to achieve a higher accuracy in construction cost prediction. In order to test the hypotheses of interest, 657 building projects from Germany were analyzed using linear regression and artificial neural network methods. Conclusive evidence suggests that the MSA approach significantly outperforms the prediction accuracy of the conventional practice. To the best of authors’ investigation, the current study is the first to offer such a cascaded estimation approach. Therefore, further empirical evidence is necessary prior to generalizing applicability of the MSA approach in construction cost estimation.
Fang, D, Zhao, C and Zhang, M (2016) A Cognitive Model of Construction Workers’ Unsafe Behaviors. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(09).
Goodrum, P M, Miller, J, Sweany, J and Alruwaythi, O (2016) Influence of the Format of Engineering Information and Spatial Cognition on Craft-Worker Performance. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(09).
Govan, P and Damnjanovic, I (2016) The Resource-Based View on Project Risk Management. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(09).
Hanna, A S (2016) Benchmark Performance Metrics for Integrated Project Delivery. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(09).
Hosseini, S M A, de la Fuente, A and Pons, O (2016) Multicriteria Decision-Making Method for Sustainable Site Location of Post-Disaster Temporary Housing in Urban Areas. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(09).
Nguyen, L D, Tran, D Q and Chandrawinata, M P (2016) Predicting Safety Risk of Working at Heights Using Bayesian Networks. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(09).
Ramsey, D, El Asmar, M and Gibson, G E (2016) Quantitative Performance Assessment of Single-Step versus Two-Step Design-Build Procurement. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(09).
Shealy, T, Klotz, L, Weber, E U, Johnson, E J and Bell, R G (2016) Using Framing Effects to Inform More Sustainable Infrastructure Design Decisions. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(09).
Signor, R, Love, P E D and Olatunji, O (2016) Determining Overpricing in Brazilian Infrastructure Projects: A Forensic Approach. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(09).
Wang, C, Zhang, S, Du, C, Pan, F and Xue, L (2016) A Real-Time Online Structure-Safety Analysis Approach Consistent with Dynamic Construction Schedule of Underground Caverns. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(09).